Austin Short-Term Rental Trends: A Preliminary Look at 2025 vs. 2024

As we head into 2026, many investors are asking the same question: Did short-term rental performance in Austin actually decline in 2025—or is the data being misread?

Using preliminary January–November (Jan–Nov) data from our 2025 STR Revenue Overview, we compared 2025 vs. 2024 across dozens of Austin-area ZIP codes, looking at two core metrics:

• Short-term rental revenue by bedroom count

• Median residential sales prices

Because December 2025 revenue data has not yet fully been released, full-year totals would understate 2025 performance. To keep comparisons accurate, all revenue trends below are based on Jan–Nov performance for both years.

What follows is a high-level view of what actually changed—and what didn’t.

Big Picture Takeaway

• STR revenue in 2025 was modestly softer than 2024 overall, but not universally across all property types or ZIP codes.

• Median home prices were largely flat year-over-year, with sharp gains or declines in certain ZIPs often driven by low sales volume or shifts in the mix of homes sold, rather than broad market moves.

• Outliers exist on both revenue and pricing, and in many cases likely reflect small sample sizes, not structural changes in demand.

This was not a collapse year—but it was a more selective market.

Short-Term Rental Revenue Trends (Jan–Nov 2025 vs. Jan–Nov 2024)

3-Bedroom Homes: The Soft Spot in 2025

Across the ZIP codes analyzed, 3-bedroom STRs experienced the most consistent revenue pressure:

• The median ZIP-level change showed a mid-single-digit decline year-over-year.

• Only a minority of ZIP codes posted meaningful 3BR revenue growth.

This matters because 3-bedroom homes represent the most common STR product in the Austin market. Increased competition, combined with more price-sensitive guests, appears to have compressed performance in this segment.

That said, several ZIPs still saw 3BR revenue growth, reinforcing that location, quality, and differentiation still matter.

4-Bedroom Homes: More Resilient, but Uneven

4-bedroom properties held up better overall:

• Roughly half of ZIP codes were flat or positive year-over-year.

• Declines were generally modest and highly ZIP-specific.

This suggests that slightly larger homes—with more flexibility for groups and families—were better positioned in 2025, especially when paired with strong layouts or amenities.

5-Bedroom and Larger Homes: Averages Hide the Truth

Larger homes told a more nuanced story:

• Averages look stronger than medians, meaning a handful of high-performing ZIPs pulled up the overall numbers.

• The typical ZIP saw flat to slightly negative performance for 5BRs.

• The largest homes (5+ or 6+ bedrooms) were more volatile, with sharper swings both up and down.

In other words, luxury STR performance was not uniform—it was highly dependent on micro-location, property quality, and demand depth.

Blended Revenue View: Down Slightly, Not Dramatically

When blending performance across 3BR, 4BR, and 5BR homes, the overall takeaway is simple:

2025 STR revenue was modestly down compared to 2024—but far from a market-wide collapse.

Many ZIP codes clustered close to flat, reinforcing that headline narratives of “STRs are dying” do not match the data.

Median Sales Price Trends: Flat Market, Big Swings

Looking at median sales prices from 2024 to 2025:

• The typical ZIP code saw relatively flat pricing, with slight downward pressure overall.

• Only about one-third of ZIP codes showed clear median price appreciation.

However, some ZIP codes showed extreme year-over-year changes—both up and down.

Why the Outliers Matter (and Why They Can Mislead)

Large swings in median price—especially declines of 20%, 30%, or more—are often not evidence of a true market crash. In many cases, they reflect:

• Low transaction volume in that ZIP for the year

• A shift in what sold (e.g., condos vs. luxury homes vs. teardown lots)

• A single high-end or low-end sale disproportionately influencing the median

These outliers are important to note—but they should be interpreted cautiously and not used as standalone indicators of market health.

What This Means for STR Investors

1. Revenue Declines Were Product-Specific, Not Universal

If you own—or are underwriting—a standard 3BR STR, 2025 data suggests more pressure than in prior years. That doesn’t mean deals don’t work, but it raises the bar for design, amenities, pricing strategy, and location.

2. Pricing Didn’t Bail Out Weak Revenue

With home prices largely flat, investors could not rely on appreciation to offset softer cash flow. Returns increasingly depend on operational excellence, not market momentum.

3. Data Timing Matters

Until December 2025 numbers are finalized, full-year revenue comparisons will understate 2025 performance. Jan–Nov comparisons are the most reliable lens for now, and any annualized figures should be clearly labeled as estimates.

Final Thoughts

The 2025 Austin STR market was more competitive and more selective, but not fundamentally broken.

• Strong properties in strong locations continued to perform.

• Mediocre listings felt the squeeze.

• And headline-grabbing outliers—on both revenue and pricing—often reflect data limitations rather than true market shifts.

As we move into 2026, the takeaway is clear: strategy matters more than ever, and broad market averages are no substitute for ZIP-level and property-specific analysis.